OSC Activity E.2

1. To model land use changes in a sub-watershed associated with full transition of all farms to organic farming
2. To understand the E and GWG emissions associated with such a scenario
3. To advance understanding of the impacts of widespread adoption of organic farming in Canada
4. To determine the environmental value added associated with the transition process which will help with branding Canadian food products as environmentally sustainable.

Three selected sub-watersheds from across Canada will be modeled for global warming potential (GWP) reductions associated with full transition to organic agriculture, using field-generated data from cluster partners, existing geospatial data, and existing knowledge of the transition from conventional to organic land use.

This work furthers our understanding of the potential environmental benefits associated with widespread adoption of organic farming, a topic for which little research has been carried out in Canada. The sub-watersheds will be selected based on:

1. The need for a diversity of sub-watershed characteristics
2. The state of knowledge of baseline land use and production activities
3. The “typicality” of the sub-watershed as it relates to organic transition opportunities
4. The likelihood of significant uptake of organic production over the next 10 years.

The method will be modeled on Coiner et al. (1998) and related reports who studied future scenarios in several Ohio sub-watersheds. A baseline land use scenario will be constructed, from which will be created typical organic transition changes for each dominant farming type in the sub-watershed. The organic transition scenarios will be constructed from the existing literature and expert opinion in the region of each study area. The land use and production changes will be modeled using GIS methodologies, and the changes linked, via existing data sets, to changes in greenhouse gas emissions.  Agent-based modeling approaches and software should permit dynamic modeling of the interactions between these variables and outcomes.  Given results, implications for product branding will be reviewed, based on existing literature on eco-labeling and branding.

• The Carbon Footprint of Organic Farms [PDF - 4.4 MB]
  • The Canadian Organic Grower. 2012
• Tools for Geospatial and Agent Based Modeling to Evaluate Climate Change in an Agricultural Watershed in Transition to Organic Agriculture [PDF - 50 kB]
  • Canadian Organic Science Conference. 2012
    

• Agronomic and environmental implications of organic farming systems
  • Advances in Agronomy (2001) 70: 261-262
• Comparing the environmental impacts of pasture-based and confinement-based dairy systems in Nova Scotia (Canada) using life cycle assessment
  • International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability (2009) 7: 19-41
• Crop production during conversion from conventional to low-input methods
  • Agronomy Journal (1989) 81: 150-159
• Economic and social impacts of organic production systems
  • Canadian Journal of Plant Science (2007) 87: 1037-1044
• Energy and Environmental Issues in Organic and Conventional Agriculture
  • Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences (2008) 27: 239-254
• Energy use and efficiency in two Canadian organic and conventional crop production systems
  • Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems (2006) 21: 60-67 2006
• Environmental impacts of organic agriculture: a Canadian perspective
  • Canadian Journal of Plant Science (2009) 89: 621-628
• Legume-based cropping systems have reduced carbon and nitrogen losses
  • Nature (1998) 396:262-265
• Nitrous oxide emissions from organic and conventional crop rotations in five European countries
  • Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment (2006) 112: 200-206
• Quantifying the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions as a result of composting dairy and beef cattle manure
  • Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems (2005) 72:173–187
• Reduced nitrate leaching and enhanced denitrifier activity and efficiency in organically fertilized soils
  • PNAS (2006) 103: 4522-4527
• Scenario Modeling Potential Eco-efficiency Gains from a Transition to Organic Agriculture: Life Cycle Perspectives on Canadian Canola, Corn, Soy and Wheat Production
  • Environmental Management (2008) 42: 989-1001

• Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada