Kevin Quigley is Scholarly Director of the MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance at Dalhousie University.
After a busy two weeks as prime minister, Mark Carney has called an election for April 28.
As the first in Canadian history to be named prime minister without ever having held public office, Carney is hoping he can win the trust of Canadians. He’ll run for a seat in the Ottawa riding of Nepean.
Trustworthiness is awarded to those who are at least perceived as knowledgeable, transparent and concerned. Can Carney pull it off?
When it comes to economics, Carney is among the most knowledgeable in the country. After obtaining a PhD at the University of Oxford, Carney has had a distinguished public service career in the Canadian Department of Finance, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England.
With such a high level of economic uncertainty today in the face of repeated threats from United States President Donald Trump, his supporters say he’s the right person to lead Canada. His chief rival, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, was first elected to the House of Commons at the age of 25 and has quite a different CV.
Is Carney empathetic?
Carney, however, might struggle more with the other characteristics of trustworthiness — seeming open and showing concern.
The Conservatives have criticized Carney for not being more transparent about his private financial interests. While Carney is following disclosure rules, the Conservatives argue Canadians need to know more about whether he’s in a conflict of interest when he makes decisions in government.
Carney’s answers to questions about his time at Brookfield Asset Management have on occasion been unsteady.
On the surface, this is about transparency, but in fact it’s just as much about empathy and whether Carney can relate to working-class voters. By alluding to Carney’s wealth and connections, the Conservatives are implying that Carney is an out-of-touch elite who doesn’t share the concerns of average Canadians.
Some of the early visuals of Carney can cut both ways.
His recent chummy embrace at the Élysée with French President Emmanuel Macron exemplifies how immediately comfortable he is with world leaders. Some will find this reassuring, given the state of geopolitics; others might find it privileged and off-putting. Even his hockey skills, which were part of a recent photo-op in Edmonton when he practised with the Oilers, were acquired partly during his time at Harvard University, an institution among the most elite in the world.
Empathy, instinct
Can Carney connect with people?
Arguably, he needs work on this front. He might consider some of his Liberal predecessors.
Former prime minister Justin Trudeau could certainly rally a crowd. Trudeau became a motivational speaker in the 2000s and used opportunities like the WE Charity to practise public speaking to what would become an important constituency for him — young voters — when he led the Liberals to victory in 2015.
Not everything can be taught at school. Political instinct is also crucial. It requires reconciling the knowledge of experts with the concerns of everyday citizens. There is no formula for this balance sheet.
Here again, Trudeau had insight. Bill Morneau, a corporate executive himself and the former federal finance minister, noted after the COVID-19 pandemic that government payouts had been too generous and driven more by Trudeau’s view of the politics of the moment than by the economic analysis provided to him by the Finance Department.
This may be so, but most would say Trudeau handled the early stages of the pandemic deftly.
Chretien’s skills
It was interesting that at the recent Liberal convention confirming Carney as leader, delegates gushed over former prime minister Jean Chretien, far from an elitist. A winner of three consecutive majorities, Chretien delivered a speech that went over at least as well with delegates as Carney’s.
Chretien had unparalleled political instincts. When Conservative Prime Minister Brian Mulroney rolled out the GST in 1991, it was deeply unpopular. Despite Chretien later famously backtracking on his original opposition to the GST, the Liberal Party under his stewardship used the issue to exact maximum damage on the Progressive Conservatives, delivering them a near-fatal blow.
Chretien’s killer instincts trumped expert knowledge. While the Progressive Conservatives paid a heavy price for adopting the GST, the policy was largely advocated and shaped by business and economic elites, including in the Department of Finance. Good economics does not always make for good politics.
Emotions to run high
If the 1988 federal election that focused almost exclusively on free trade with the U.S. is any indication of what the next few weeks will look like in Canada, the election campaign is going to get heated quickly. Arguments may be more emotional than sensible.
The fact that Carney dropped the carbon tax and capital gains tax was an early sign that he’s not an economist anymore, he’s a politician.
The challenge for Carney — and for any politician in the heat of an election campaign battle — will be to find the sweet spot that reconciles expert opinion with public concerns and to articulate policies in a manner that voters will understand and support.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.