Elliot McLauchlan

B.Sc. (Honours) Thesis

The Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow in the Blueberry River, Northern British Columbia, and the Potential Influence on Oil and Gas Development

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Water withdrawal for oil and gas extraction and other uses has become common for highly seasonal streams in watersheds of northeastern British Columbia with the recent surge of unconventional resource development. Permissible withdrawals are administered that maintain the environmental flow needs of the stream. However, discharges may vary over the next 40-60 years, owing to climate change, which could influence the sustainability of current rates of withdrawal. To examine this problem, I focus on streamflow in the Blueberry River Basin in northeastern British Columbia (area 1,777 km2). Streamflow in the Blueberry was modeled using the HBV-EC watershed model. The model was calibrated using gauge and climate data for 1978-1982. Simulations for 2046-2065 used daily and monthly climate data from the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario, in the CGCM3.1/T47 Global Climate Model. Mean annual precipitation remained constant between the years 2046-65 and the calibration period, although there was moderate monthly variation. Mean annual snowfall increased by 0.03 cm and mean annual temperature rose by 1.51 oC. Snowfall and temperature also experience monthly fluctuations. The initial spring freshet in the historic period typically occurred around April 29, while the timing of the simulated peak spring freshet was forecast earlier, changing from late April to late March. All years simulated showed an increase in late season discharge, with significant discharge commonly occurring in November months. Under current allocations in the Blueberry River, all simulated years would experience water shortages in January, February, and March, with the exception of March 2050. No simulated year predicted water shortages in December, or any nonwinter month. I propose that changes to hydrology in the Blueberry River Basin are plausible in the next 50 years. The magnitude of these changes however, is difficult to predict with a high degree of certainty, due to some of the limitations associated with the modeling process.

Keywords: Watershed Modeling, HBV-EC, northeastern British Columbia, Blueberry River, Hydrology, Oil and Gas, Water Resource Management.
Pages: 70
Supervisor: Lawrence Plug and Allan Chapman