Scenario Planning
What is scenario planning?
In times of uncertainty, the traditional methods that organizations use to anticipate and plan for the future can be unreliable or unavailable. In these cases, scenario planning is a tool that can help organizations to distinguish between what they can control and what they cannot control, and what policies they can develop in light of this dynamic. Scenario planning can challenge us to think differently, invite us to examine alternative outcomes and how to respond to them.
The MacEachen Institute has worked with organizations from diverse sectors to host scenario planning exercises designed to help them identify and manage risks, and identify opportunities in the short and medium terms.
Scenario planning resources
At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the MacEachen Institute developed this guide to scenario planning as a resource for organizations who were struggling to adapt to rapidly changing circumstances. A longer discussion paper is also available here.
Scenario planning in the news
- MacEachen Institute Scholarly Director Kevin Quigley for The Conversation: How scenario planning could help Canadian policymakers deal with American political chaos" (Kevin Quigley, The Conversation | Nov. 4, 2024)
CASE STUDY: Atlantic Canada Cruise Association scenario planning exercises
In 2021, The MacEachen Institute hosted two rounds of scenario planning exercises with the Atlantic Canada Cruise Association (ACCA) to help the industry identify and manage risks and seize opportunities in the short and medium term. The project was funded by the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency (ACOA).
A full-length report, Riding the Waves: Scenario Planning for the Atlantic Canada Cruise Industry During the Pandemic, and accompanying briefing note were produced from the session.
CASE STUDY: Scenario planning for the Halifax tourism industry
In 2021, The MacEachen Institute worked with Discover Halifax on a project looking at what the Halifax tourism sector could experience in summer 2021.
The project, supported by the Change Lab Action Research Initiative (CLARI), involved two scenario planning sessions held at the Westin Nova Scotian Hotel, where key Halifax tourism stakeholders came together to identify drivers, challenges, and opportunities for the sector. The in-person sessions were successfully planned and carried out as per the government's guidelines for gatherings during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The project aims to provide tourism industries with a useful method for understanding and responding to the challenges presented by COVID-19.
